Data just released by Altos Research shows that 35% of all homes on the market have had to reduce their asking price.
This is the highest this number has been since December of 2019.
This is also an indicator of sellers adjusting to the reality of the new market where overly aggressive pricing is not effective.
Extensive research shows the importance of pricing a home correctly on the first day so that the home sells in an appropriate time frame.
A stat that we have expected to change is finally changing.
“Days on Market” measures how long it takes for new listings to sell.
Over the last two years this stat plummeted to levels we have never seen before.
In the height of the market frenzy a year ago, properties were taking 7 days or less to sell on average.
Now, with the market cooling, Days on Market is back into double-digits.
Northern Colorado is at 20 days, a 54% increase over last year.
Metro Denver is at 12 days which is a 50% increase.
Here is a quick snapshot of our markets two weeks into July versus the same time last year…
Larimer & Weld Counties:
Metro Denver:
Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:
For the first time in almost two years, there is more than a month’s worth of inventory on the market.
This means that at the current pace of sales, it would take more than a month to sell all of the homes currently for sale.
This is certainly welcome news for buyers who have been craving a less frenzied market.
Since the market took off in the summer of 2020, inventory levels have been measured in terms of weeks.
Two to three weeks of inventory was the typical measurement for the last two years.
Today, inventory levels look like this:
Single family new housing starts in 2022 will show an increase versus last year, will be the most since 2007, and will still be well behind the peak of 2006.
This year, experts predict that a total of 1.1 million single family homes will be started. In 2021 there were 970 thousand new home starts.
The peak occurred in 2006, when 1.65 new homes were started.
So, this year will finish 33% behind the peak.
When we are asked why today’s market is different from the ‘bubble years’ of 2004 to 2007, the difference in new home starts is one reason we cite.
Even though the market is cooling, we remain significantly undersupplied which insulates prices from any kind of dramatic downturn.
During a time of varying opinions and heavy speculation about the Front Range real estate market, let’s see what the actual numbers are telling us:
Inventory is up significantly year over year:
However, supply is still low as measured by months of inventory:
Transaction count is down as the pace of sales is slowing:
Yet, average prices are still up versus last year:
The best news in a long time has finally arrived for buyers.
Inventory is up, frenzy is down.
Buyers who were frustrated, confused and disappointed by the market a few months ago are now coming back to find a much more reasonable environment.
Demand is still high for sure. However, the intense, frenzied competition has subsided.
There is now room to breathe because there is more selection.
Here is how inventory has increased along the Front Range versus the same time a year ago:
Larimer County = 28%
Weld County = 19%
Metro Denver = 35%
These are significant increases and a trend we expect to continue.
A positive outcome of the cooling housing market is lower lumber prices.
Lumber is now priced at $605 per thousand board feet. This is a new low for 2022.
Prices for lumber are now down 47% for the year and are well below the 2021 peak of $1,733 per thousand board feet.
What’s causing this? Higher mortgage rates have slowed the pace of new home sales and remodeling projects.
Most experts believe that lumber prices will fall even further during the remainder of the year.
Here is what we notice about the market right now:
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