Top Three
Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:
- Inventory – Ultimately, prices are driven by supply and demand. Although supply has increased, it still remains relatively low with less than two months’ supply in most areas.
- New Homes – New home construction still lags behind the demand stemming from population growth. New home starts today are roughly 2/3 of what they were in 2005.
- Credit – Home buyers today are highly qualified which protects the market from a glut of ‘distressed’ properties hitting the market in an economic downturn. The average credit score of buyers is now 776 which, by definition, is ‘excellent.’ Only 2% of loans today are given to buyers with scores under 640 whereas in 2001 25% of buyers had that low of a score.
Slight Increase
A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.
The way we currently measure inventory is in days.
Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.
The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.
Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:
- Larimer County = 25 days
- Weld County = 23 days
- Metro Denver = 21 days
Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.
Colorado Ranking
Here’s the latest from one of our favorite data sources – the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA).
They track home prices across the Country and produce a quarterly Home Price Index report.
It is not uncommon to find Colorado near the top of the list for year over year price growth.
The latest report has us ranked 13th with only a 13% year over year increase (said with sarcasm).
Idaho is first with a whopping 24% increase. Utah is second at 19%.
Here is our interpretation of these numbers…
Colorado has a history of strong, steady price growth instead of booms and busts.
Our market does not take the big, wild swings in prices that other markets sometimes do.
The fact that Colorado is not at the very top of the list right now is actually good news to us.
We know that our clients appreciate a market that is more steady instead of one that can feel like a rollercoaster.
Want a house in Fort Collins? Grab $500,000, get in line and join the housing Hunger Games
“Buying a house in Fort Collins these days can feel like a combat sport. Maybe more like the
‘Hunger Games.’ Or Charlie Brown and the football — every time you get close to the ball,
Lucy whisks it away…”
Pat Ferrier at the Fort Collins Coloradoan breaks down the housing market in Northern Colorado with the help real estate professionals across the front range. Click the link below to read on!
Fort Collins real estate_ Average home price near $500K in market
5.5 Million Short
New home construction is behind by 5.5 million homes over the last 14 years.
Since 2007, new home starts have lagged significantly behind the long-term average.
The Census Bureau started tracking National new home starts in 1958.
Between 1958 and 2007, an average of 1,102,938 new homes were started each year.
Between 2007 and 2020 the average fell to 708,186 which represents a shortfall of 394,752 per year.
That adds up to a total shortfall of 5,526,525.
The under-supply of new homes is of course a significant reason why the market is under-supplied overall.
credit Inman News as the source of this story
Colorado Real Estate Market Update
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
What a difference a quarter makes! Following the massive job losses Colorado experienced starting in February—the state shed over 342,000 positions between February and April—the turnaround has been palpable. Through August, Colorado has recovered 178,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, adding 107,500 jobs over the past three months, an increase of 4.2%. All regions saw a significant number of jobs returning. The most prominent was in the Denver metropolitan service area (MSA), where 78,800 jobs returned in the quarter.
Although employment in all markets is recovering, there is still a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. The recovery in jobs has naturally led the unemployment rate to drop: the state is now at a respectable 6.7%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, all areas continue to see their unemployment rates contract. I would note that the Fort Collins and Boulder MSA unemployment rates are now below 6%. Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, which is troubling, but rising rates have only slowed—not stopped—the economic recovery. Moreover, it has had no noticeable impact on the state’s housing market.
HOME SALES
- In the third quarter of 2020, 15,065 homes sold. This represents an increase of 20.4% over the third quarter of 2019, and a remarkable 52.7% increase over the second quarter of this year.
- Home sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the second quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.
- Inventory levels remain remarkably low, with the average number of homes for sale down 44.5% from the same period in 2019. Listing activity was 17.8% lower than in the second quarter of 2020.
- Even given the relative lack of inventory, pending sales rose 17.8% from the second quarter, suggesting that closings for the final quarter of the year will be positive.
HOME PRICES
- After taking a pause in the second quarter, home prices rose significantly in the third quarter, with prices up 11.9% year-over-year to an average of $523,193. Prices were up 7.4% compared to the second quarter of this year.
- Interest rates have been dropping. Although I do not see there being room for them to drop much further, they are unlikely to rise significantly. This is allowing prices to rise at above-average rates.
- Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. El Paso, Clear Creek, and Gilpin counties saw significant price appreciation. All but four counties saw double-digit price gains.
- Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern, as prices are rising at a faster pace than mortgage rates have been dropping.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped one day compared to the third quarter of 2019.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in nine counties, remained static in two, and rose in one compared to the third quarter of 2019.
- It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
- The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and the short length of time it takes to sell a home suggests buyers are competing fiercely for available inventory.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Demand for housing is significant, and sales activity is only limited by the lack of available homes to buy. Prices are rising on the back of very competitive mortgage rates and a job market in recovery. I suggested in my second-quarter report that the area would experience a “brisk summer housing market” and my forecast was accurate. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of home sellers.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Economic Update with Matthew Gardner
Exclusive Invitation!!!
Tune in on Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 9:00am to meet with Matthew Gardner, Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist LIVE and get your chance to ask him questions. He’ll be discussing the housing market, employment and the effects of COVID-19 on the local and national economy.
As one of the only real estate companies in the US that has a Chief Economist on staff, we have exclusive insights into the housing market, economy and government happenings. This is a one of a kind event for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate in Colorado.
To sign up, please contact your Windermere Agent or message us to get the link. Seating is limited in digital meeting room so get your seat!
(If you can’t attend live, you can register to automatically get the recording.)
Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 5/11/2020
Job growth is critical to the health of the housing market, so on this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,” Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner analyzes the effect of COVID-19 on employment and what we can expect for the duration of the year.