Fun Facts • March 17, 2023

March Madness

by Windermere Evergreen

When things get crazy on Wall Street, it’s often good for real estate.

Uncertainty in the stock market attracts investors to the stability offered by Treasury Bonds.

Higher demand for bonds means lower interest rates which is obviously good for real estate buyers.

“Turbulence in the financial markets is putting significant downward pressure on rates” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

After peaking at just over 7% at the end of October, rates have been trending down.

The current rate on a 30-year loan is 6.6%. A year ago it was 4.16%.

Fun Facts • March 10, 2023

Equity Cushion

by Windermere Evergreen

You may remember the term “Home ATM” from the mid 2000’s. This term stemmed from the abundance of homeowners who pulled significant amounts of equity from their homes in the form of Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit. Home values dropping in 2008, 2009 and 2010 caused many homeowners to be ‘underwater’ meaning that, all at once, their home was worth less than they owed.

Today, there are two big differences compared to the Home ATM years.

First, homeowners today have a lot of equity and very few homeowners are underwater. Of all the properties in the U.S. with mortgages, only 2.1% have negative equity. At the end of 2009, 24% of properties were underwater.

Second, homeowners are not pulling cash out of their homes like they were in the mid 2000’s. Net Equity Extraction is only 1.6% of disposable income compared to 8% during the housing bubble years.

Fun Facts • March 3, 2023

Small is the New Big

by Windermere Evergreen

The average size of new homes is dropping. This is after a two-year period that saw size increase significantly. This is according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing.The COVID-19 pandemic changed how much time people spent in their homes and also how they used their homes. Homeowners discovered a need for more residential space as work-from-home became more prevalent. This caused a demand for larger space.Now, as housing affordability has become more important, that trend is reversing. Median single-family square floor area fell to 2,203 square feet during the fourth quarter of 2022, and is now the lowest it has been since 2011.

Fun Facts • February 24, 2023

A Little Perspective…

by Windermere Evergreen

Those of us in the real estate industry agree that the years 2020 to 2022 were anomalies. During that time there were unique factors which drove abnormally high real estate activity. The number of transactions that occurred in those three years were at levels never seen before.It has become customary to compare the market in 2023 to the years 2016 to 2019 when looking at the number of closed transactions.Here’s what is interesting, while the number of closings so far this year is much less than last year, it is very close to what we saw in the more normal market of 2016 to 2019.Last month, 295 properties closed in Larimer County and 296 closed in Weld.The average January during 2016 to 2019 was 334 in Larimer and 303 in Weld.So, this year is only 12% lower than the average in Larimer County and 2% lower in Weld.

Fun Facts • February 17, 2023

Rate Prediction

by Windermere Evergreen

Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner predicts that interest rates will hit 5.4% by the end of 2023.

His prediction is aligned with most expert real estate economists.

While rates will continue to bounce up and down as the year goes on, the general trend will be lower rates.

This prediction is mainly based on the Fed tempering their increases as inflation starts to ease in the second half of the year.

Because of this prediction, we see housing demand increasing as rates decrease throughout the year.

Fun Facts • February 10, 2023

Jobs Bounce

by Windermere Evergreen

As the job market goes, so goes the housing market. This is a fact about any primary housing market.

If employment is growing, the housing market will keep growing.

One of the many positive indicators of the healthy Northern Colorado economy is the fact that the jobs lost during the pandemic have bounced back.

Not only has employment recovered, it now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Northern Colorado unemployment is now down to 4.1%.

These facts were reported by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner during our annual Market Forecast event.

If you would like to see any of the slides from the presentation, please let us know.

Fun Facts • February 3, 2023

Equity Rich

by Windermere Evergreen

Homeowners in Northern Colorado have a bunch of equity in their homes.This fact was reported by our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner at our annual Real Estate Market Forecast event.The term ‘equity rich’ is defined as someone who has at least 50% equity in their home.For example, if someone owns a home worth $500,000 and their mortgage balance is less than $250,000, they are ‘equity rich.’A whopping 57% of Larimer County homeowners and 46% of Weld County homeowners are equity rich.To put that in perspective, in 2015 there were roughly 20% of Northern Colorado homeowners who had this much equity in their homes.This level of equity is one of many reasons Northern Colorado is protected from any sort of severe market downturn resulting from an excessive amount of distressed properties hitting the market.

Fun Facts • January 27, 2023

Luxury Stats

by Windermere Evergreen

The numbers are in. 2022 was another strong year for luxury sales of properties over $1,000,000.Along the whole Front Range in 2022, the number of luxury properties that sold was up 6.28% over 2021.The sold price per square foot was up 5.98% compared last year.Most interestingly, the number of luxury properties that closed this past year compared to 2019 was up by a whopping 133%.Sales of luxury properties is usually a good indicator of the overall health of the market.

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1st at 5:30pm. To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

Fun Facts • January 20, 2023

No Bear

by Windermere Evergreen

Altos Research is one of the most trusted sources of real estate market information in the United States. Each week they track every single home for sale across the Country. They analyze the pricing, supply, demand, and status changes for all listings. This amount of data allows them to expertly predict changes in the market.

Their founder, Mike Simonsen, recently said this about the current state of the real estate market:

“The most important thing to take away is that the most bearish scenarios for home prices this year are not taking place. If a buyer is sitting on the sidelines waiting for a home price crash, in general across the country that’s not happening.

“We can measure demand and the direction of future sales prices by looking at the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This number, frankly, is lower than I would have expected given how few buyers were out in the fall. This a sign that sellers are not panicking and that smart, properly priced listings are getting their offers.”

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1^st at 5:30pm. To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

Fun Facts • January 13, 2023

Versus 2019

by Windermere Evergreen

Because 2021 and 2020 were such unique years in real estate because of the considerably low interest rates, many people in our industry believe it makes sense to compare 2022 to 2019 when looking at the key statistics.

Here’s how 2022 looked along the Front Range compared to 2019:

Prices Number of Transactions Properties for Sale

Larimer County +41% -6% -37%

Weld County +39% +2% -16%

Metro Denver +40% -14% -6%

Generally, what we notice is that:

Prices are up significantly
The number of transactions is similar
Inventory is down compared to 2019 even though it is more than double 2021’s inventory

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1^st at 5:30pm. To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com